Isramart : Plug-In Cars May Not Soon Cut Oil Use, CO2 Emissions

Isramart news:
Sales of plug-in cars, touted by the Obama administration and automakers as a way to curb oil use and greenhouse gases, may be held back for decades by battery costs, a study for the U.S. government found.

Rechargeable autos in 2010 may cost $18,000 more to build than conventional gasoline cars because of their lithium-ion batteries, the National Research Council of the National Academies said in a summary of the study today. Batteries probably won’t be cheap enough until 2030 to spur sales that would reduce oil use and carbon pollution.

“Battery technology has been developing rapidly, but steep declines in cost do not appear likely over the next couple of decades,” the council said in the report. “While these costs will come down, a fundamental breakthrough in battery technology, unforeseen at present, would be needed to make plug- ins widely affordable in the near future.”

The findings cast doubts on plans by General Motors Co., Nissan Motor Co. and startups Tesla Motors Inc. and Fisker Automotive Inc. to sell high volumes of lithium-ion powered models in the next few years. The more than 18-month study, relying on university and industry research, U.S. labs and consultants, was sponsored by the Energy Department. The government often uses National Academies data to guide policy.

Plug-ins are hybrid-electric vehicles that can be recharged at household outlets. The study suggests conventional hybrids that don’t need to be plugged in, such as Toyota Motor Corp.’s Prius, may be a better near-term option for curbing oil use.

‘Committed to Electrification’

“We remain committed to electrification,” said Rob Peterson, a GM spokesman. “We’re seeing that our cost per kilowatt hour is already significantly lower than what industry estimates have been and what this study indicates.”

Fred Standish, a spokesman for Nissan, wasn’t immediately able to comment on the study. Yokohama, Japan-based Nissan plans to eventually sell hundreds of thousands of Leaf hatchbacks a year propelled solely by lithium-ion batteries, the first models arriving in 2010.

“I worry that right now government investment is essentially prejudging winning and losing technologies,” said Johan de Nysschen, president of Audi AG’s U.S. unit. The Ingolstadt, Germany-based carmaker is adding more diesel vehicles in the U.S. to lift fuel-efficiency, he said.

“We will eventually overcome the cost and technology challenges of electric vehicles,” de Nysschen said at the National Press Club in Washington. “Until we get there, clean diesel represents such a leap forward that it shouldn’t be ignored.”

Plug-In Prius

Toyota intends to begin retail sales of a plug-in version of the Prius in two years and aims to sell “several tens of thousands” of plug-ins a year globally, Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada told reporters in Tokyo. The Toyota City, Japan-based company will also start selling a short- distance, battery-only electric car in 2012.

President Barack Obama has set a goal of having as many as 1 million plug-in electric vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015. To meet that target, the Energy Department this year provided $11 billion in low-cost loans and grants to accelerate production of rechargeable vehicles. To entice consumers, there’s a $7,500 U.S. tax credit for plug-in car purchases.

Concerns that carbon-dioxide emissions may be contributing to climate change, along with a rise in fuel prices last year, have pushed carmakers to focus on developing alternatives to gasoline power.

GM has committed about $1 billion to develop the rechargeable Chevrolet Volt, which the Detroit-based automaker is banking on to leapfrog Toyota’s Prius.

40 Million Vehicles

“Subsidies in the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars” over the next several decades are needed to reach broad market penetration, according to the report, which focused on plug-ins with an electric range of 10 miles to 40 miles.

Under the most optimistic assumptions, as many as 40 million plug-ins may be on the road by 2030, the study found. If costs and infrastructure improve at a slower pace, the market may be 13 million vehicles by 2030, according to the report.

In addition to cheaper batteries, access to electric outlets in parking spaces is needed to persuade many people to buy plug-in cars, according to the report. For home charging, consumers will need advanced smart meters and electrical system upgrades that may cost more than $1,000.

The U.S. needs to adopt a “portfolio approach” to curbing oil use.

“This should include increasing the fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles and pursuing research, development, and demonstration into alternative strategies, including the use of bio-fuels, electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles,” according to the report.