Isramart : Thinktank says Chinese carbon emissions could peak by 2030 (Roundup)

Isramart news:
Beijing - China’s carbon dioxide emissions could peak in by 2030, says a report published Tuesday in the first concrete prediction of the country’s future emissions.

The thinktank, a joint panel of China’s National Development and Reform Commission and the Development Research Center of the State Council, states that with a decisive environment policy the world’s largest producer of greenhouse gases could put a brake on its carbon emissions by 2020 and see them peak in 2030.

If China hits these targets, then its emissions in 2050 could be back at the levels of 2005, according to the report.

The figures will be used in Beijing’s preparations for the world climate summit in Copenhagen. At the end of the year the summit is due to come up with a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012, with binding aims for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Experts have warned that without concrete promises from China and the US, the largest emitters of carbon dioxide, there can be no effective fight against climate change.

The publication of such concrete aims could mean a change in Beijing’s line, especially its demands for cuts by industrial nations and its previous stress on its own right to development.

The experts warn in the report that China cannot carry on as before.

‘Only by using advanced low-carbon technologies can China’s greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2030; otherwise, the peak will be delayed and we don’t want to see the latter scenario,’ said Jiang Kejun, an economist on the panel. He added that massive investment was needed.

‘The potential threat to China from climate change exists and is massive,’ the report said, specifying droughts, floods, threats to supplies of drinking water, sudden unexpected melting of large glaciers on the Tibetan plateau and the decline of agricultural production.

Should China simply continue as normal, CO2 emissions in the year 2040 would reach height of 3.5 million tons of carbon, researchers stated. In an ‘advanced low-carbon scenario’ using ambitious measures, emissions could be reduced to 2.2 million tons of carbon by 2030.

According to foreign estimates, China in 2007 emitted around 1.8 million tons of pure carbon. A ton of carbon corresponds to 2.67 tons of CO2.

The researchers in the Chinese study suggest a central role for a carbon tax on fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil. Such a tax from an initial 100 yuan (around 15 dollars) per ton of carbon could lower emissions by up to 24 per cent, the report said.