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Any plan for halving global greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050 will depend on cutting the energy used by buildings and vehicles and on developing technology to capture and store pollution, the International Energy Agency said today.
More energy-efficient buildings and cars could provide 38 percent of the carbon dioxide cuts necessary, and “should be the highest priority in the short-term,” according to an IEA report.
Power plants, factories and refineries could contribute 19 percent of the needed pollution cuts if “carbon capture and storage” technology is commercially proven, said the agency, which advises 28 nations, including the U.S. and Japan, on energy policy.
Renewable electricity sources such as wind farms and solar panels could account for 15 percent of the 2050 emissions goal, with 6 percent more coming from new nuclear reactors, according to the report. The IEA predicts governments and investors would have to put 17 percent more money into the energy sector for the next 40 years to support low-pollution technology over today’s fossil fuels.
“Governments will need to intervene on an unprecedented level in the next decade to avoid the lock-in of high-emitting, inefficient technologies,” the Paris-based agency said.
Laws that charge polluters a price for releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere won’t be enough to cut global greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2050, according to the report.
Driving Change
While cap-and-trade programs, in which companies buy and sell a declining number of carbon dioxide allowances, “are likely to be an important driver of change, they are not necessarily the most effective way to deliver short-term investment,” the IEA said.
Cap-and-trade programs for greenhouse gases already exist in Europe and the U.S. Northeast. Legislation to establish a federal cap-and-trade program covering nearly every sector of the U.S. economy passed the House of Representatives last year with the support of President Barack Obama.
The cap-and-trade plan stalled in the Senate, where some Democrats are now proposing a scaled-back plan covering the electricity sector, which accounts for about one-third of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to Environmental Protection Agency data. The EPA plans to enforce its own carbon dioxide regulations next year if the carbon trading bill doesn’t pass.
The IEA predicts that “a truly global carbon market is likely to be many years away,” and governments should consider other measures to promote low-pollution technology, such as agency regulations, tax breaks and subsidies.
Government funding for research and development into low- carbon technologies also should be “two to five times higher than current levels,” according to the IEA.