Isra-Mart srl:Global solar PV investment could double to €70bn by 2015

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Global investment in solar photovoltaic (PV) technology could more than double to €70bn (£59.7bn) a year by 2015, provided that governments deliver the financial incentives and policies required to achieve grid parity.

That is the conclusion of a major new report published today by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and Greenpeace International, which investigates the outcomes of three potential industry scenarios up to 2050.

In all three scenarios, the report predicts the cost of PV will continue to decline as technologies become more efficient and better intergrated into the design of new buildings.

The study claims the share of PV in the electricity market will depend on what happens to electricity consumption in light of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, it predicts that by 2020 the share of electricity coming from PV sources in Europe could reach 12 per cent.

EPIA president Ingmar Wilhelm said the report showed the technology is on the brink of an economic breakthrough.

"Solar photovoltaic technology has, for many years now, shown increased power efficiencies and cost reductions," he said. "Today's cost predictions, driven also by economies of scale in light of global photovoltaic capacity, totalling 40,000MW in 2010, show that the technology is on the brink of an economic breakthrough."

Under the report's most ambitious "paradigm shift" scenario, the global PV sector could see employment levels rise to 1.37 million people by 2015, and 3.55 million in 2030. It predicts the sector could also attract €70bn of investment a year by 2015, doubling from the €35-40bn invested last year. Investment would then continue to rise to €129bn a year by 2020, before leveling off over the next two decades to reach €149bn (£127bn) a year in 2050.

The report claims this paradigm shift is achievable if governments establish appropriate and flexible feed-in-tariffs (FiT) as well as route maps to ensure the cost of PV becomes at least as cheap as conventional power – a scenario known as grid parity.

Specifically, the report urges governments to establish FiTs which guarantee investment for 15 to 20 years, while also regularly assessing tariff levels to ensure the market does not become overheated.

Sven Teske, senior energy expert at Greenpeace International, said the study boosted Greenpeace's hopes that PV could become a mainstream power source with the right policy support.

"Solar photovoltaic is a key technology for combating climate change; our research shows that it creates 35 to 50 jobs per tonne of CO2 savings and will increase the security of energy supply by reducing dependency on energy imports to Europe," he said.

In related news, SANYO Component Europe yesterday received Microgeneration Certification Scheme accreditation for its HIT series of PV solar cells, which it claims are most efficient cells currently available.

The HIT Series of cells are already commercially available throughout mainland Europe, but MCS accreditation is required in the UK if the panels are to qualify for the government's feed-in tariff incentive scheme.

SANYO says HIT solar panels have a solar efficiency rating of 19.3 per cent compared to competitor panels, which average a rating of 13-14 per cent.