Isra-Mart srl:EVs to flourish as oil supplies dwindle

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Electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to emerge as the big winners as oil production dwindles, according to a major new report by IT services firm Logica, which also predicts fully recyclable, remote-controlled vehicles could emerge by 2030.

The new report, entitled Eco-mobility – the end of the road for fossil fuels?, examines the likely developments set to take place in the transport sector over the next two decades and analyses the changes that must be implemented to deliver the rapid transition away from fossil fuels.

The report predicts that decreasing oil supplies coupled with increasing congestion and the political imperative to protect the UK car manufacturing industry, which directly and indirectly employs 820,000 people and generates exports worth £20bn a year, will hasten the UK's shift to low-carbon vehicles.

"Both the end of oil and the effects of global warming point to the same conclusion: we need to move to alternatively powered vehicles that have little or no dependence on oil and very low or zero emissions," the report concludes.

Logica expects EVs to enjoy the bulk of increased demand for green vehicles due to government subsidies, their suitability for short journeys, and higher levels of research and development compared to hydrogen or biofuel cars.

The report cites National Grid predictions that government subsidies and lower fuel costs will ensure EVs make up 20 per cent of UK auto sales by 2016.

However, the paper's authors predict the long-term success of EVs rests on the development of recharging infrastructure, arguing that without a network of recharging or refuelling points, low-emissions vehicles will fail to break into the mainstream.

"If we don't get the infrastructure right, all the investment going into the alternative vehicles market will just go to waste," Theo Quick, Logica's head of intelligent transport solutions, told BusinessGreen. "The acid test is the billing. At the moment there are lots of [charging] schemes, but no one has worked out how to bring them together."

Although the UK's 9,000 petrol stations could also become fuel cell recharge centres and LPG providers, Quick argued that unlike hydrogen a "ready-made electricity infrastructure" already exists and as such it makes more sense to add recharge infrastructure to existing filling stations.

He added that the sizeable investment necessary to put an alternative fuel and EV recharging infrastructure in place by 2030 could be delivered.

The report also predicts that by 2030 cars are likely to be entirely recyclable, encouraged by waste taxes introduced by the government to compensate for declining revenue from fuel duty.

In addition, it suggests car ownership models will change so that by 2030 we lease vehicles that are remotely controlled to meet speed limits, eliminate theft and cut congestion.