Isra-Mart srl:G20 emission reductions fail to go "far or fast enough"

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The carbon intensity of the G20 economies is not falling quickly enough to meet emission reduction targets recommended by climate scientists, according to the latest major study of the world's largest economies.

The Low Carbon Economy Index from consultancy giant PricewaterhouseCoopers will be released on the sidelines of the UN's Cancun Climate Summit later today and will show that while greenhouse gas emissions from the G20 have fallen in the past year the cuts are not deep enough to put the world on track to meet recommended targets for 2020 and 2050.

The Low Carbon Economy Index measures the carbon intensity of the world's largest economies against the carbon budget that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes the world must not exceed before 2050 if it is to avoid average global temperatures increasing by more than two degrees Centigrade.

It concludes that overall during 2009 the G20 reduced its total carbon emissions by 1.2 per cent, an improvement on the 1.9 per cent growth recorded in 2008 but nowhere near the 3.5 per cent reduction per annum that last year's report recommended would be required up to 2020.

In addition, the report warns that the bulk of the reduction achieved in 2009 was the result of the global recession, arguing that "despite ambitious targets and policy commitments announced in 2009, many of the world's largest economies have remained on their business-as-usual carbon pathways".

It also warns that, based on current trends in carbon intensity, the world will have used up an estimated global carbon budget for the first half of this century by 2034, 16 years ahead of schedule.

Moreover, the short term challenge has become more daunting with the failure to deliver cuts in carbon emissions over the past decade meaning that the annual global decarbonisation rate required up to 2020 has almost doubled from two per cent a year in 2000 to 3.8 per cent per annum over the next 10 years.

However, the report does highlight a number of potential sources of optimism, noting how Brazil and India are showing significant progress in improving their carbon intensity.

Brazil tops the index after delivering a 5.4 per cent cut in carbon intensity during 2009, largely as a result of improved renewable energy and deforestation policies, although the report also warns that the country still needs to deliver a 79 per cent cut in carbon intensity by 2050.

Similarly, India performed well in the index as a result of its relatively low carbon intensity and its commitment to cut it by a further 20 to 25 per cent through a huge investment in solar energy.

Leo Johnson, partner in the PwC sustainability and climate change team, said that the rankings revealed that while the overall challenge remains daunting "a number of countries have woken up to the potential for low carbon growth, and the risks to economic competitiveness of falling behind".

"Looking back on Copenhagen perhaps its core legacy was not just the failure of multilateral political cooperation, but the kick starting of national race for green growth," he added.

Richard Gledhill, who is also a partner in the PwC sustainability and climate change team, said the report highlights the fact that few governments and companies are delivering emission reduction plans in line with what is recommended by climate scientists.

"Governments and companies are not waiting for an international treaty before taking action," he said. "But this analysis questions if they are going far enough or fast enough. The challenge now is to scale up the policies and actions required to deliver a low carbon economy."