www.isra-mart.com
Protests from non-European Union countries rallying against the planned inclusion of their airlines in Europe's emissions trading scheme from 2012 look set to increase as the date for implementation draws nearer.
The Air Transport Association of America's legal challenge to the ETS is due to be heard by the European Court of Justice on 5 July. China too has begun making its opposition to the scheme known.
"We're seeing a ramping up of political pressure from countries like China and the US," said Air Transport Action Group executive director Paul Steele, adding that "as the deadline gets closer we will see more and more of this opposition".
China has begun talks with the European Commission after Li Jiaxiang, chief of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, complained that the scheme discriminates against airlines from developing countries.
"Over the next few months it's going to be very interesting to see how the political situation evolves," said Steele. "A lot of non-EU states are concerned that Europe has imposed its system on their carriers, particularly on flights not over EU airspace. Most of these emissions are outside EU airspace, so we're seeing a lot of countries expressing concern."
While he does not believe the USA's challenge will yield a result before the emissions scheme kicks in on 1 January 2012, Steele is hoping for a ruling "before the end of 2012", ahead of the requirement for airlines to start purchasing emissions permits in 2013.
The International Air Transport Association, which is a member of ATAG, is opposed to the EU trading scheme and is calling instead for the development of a global emissions trading mechanism through the International Civil Aviation Organisation.
Monday, June 6, 2011
Isra-Mart srl: Airline profits to plunge this year
www.isra-mart.com
Airline profits will likely plummet this year because of natural disasters, political violence and higher fuel prices, an industry group said Monday.
Airlines will probably earn about $4 billion in 2011, down from $18 billion last year, the International Air Transport Association said. IATA's previous forecast in March estimated 2011 profits of $8.6 billion.
"Natural disasters in Japan, unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, plus the sharp rise in oil prices have slashed industry profit expectations," IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani said in a statement. "That we are making any money at all in a year with this combination of unprecedented shocks is a result of a very fragile balance."
Higher fuel costs -- crude rose to $115 last month from $84 in February -- are the largest obstacle to airline profitability, IATA said.
The industry's fuel bill will likely rise by $10 billion this year to $176 billion and fuel now accounts for 30 percent of an airline's costs, up from 13 percent in 2001, IATA said.
Airlines are counting on continued growth in the global economy to help offset higher oil prices. Passenger numbers will likely increase 4.4 percent this year while cargo should grow 5.5 percent, though both forecasts are below IATA's March estimates.
"The corporate sector is cash-rich, business confidence is high, and world trade continues to expand," IATA said. "The key risk to this outlook is a weakening of global economic growth."
IATA expects a razor thin 0.7 percent profit margin for airlines this year on revenue of $598 billion.
Airline executives criticized a new European Union plan that would make carriers pay for carbon dioxide emissions that exceed a limit. The Emissions Trading Scheme is scheduled to begin on January 1 and will likely lead other countries and jurisdictions to implement similar taxes over the next few years, said Tim Clark, president of Dubai-based Emirates Airline, the world's largest carrier by international passenger traffic.
"The emission targets are very difficult. It's an incredibly big task," Clark said during a panel discussion after IATA's general assembly meeting in Singapore.
Until global emissions standards are in place, Europe's carbon tax on airlines will likely lead carriers to avoid making connections in Europe if possible, said Antonio Vazquez, chairman of IAG, the parent of British Airways and Iberia.
Industry officials in the U.S. and China have said they will challenge Europe's emission tax plan in court. Airline executives seemed resigned to the new cost and said it will likely lead to higher ticket prices.
"We just have to face it and do it," said Emirsyah Satar, chief executive of Garuda Indonesia. "It will be passed on to the consumer. It just creates more costs at a time when we're struggling."
IATA said Asian airlines would have the biggest profits this year, predicting earnings of $2.1 billion while North American carriers would see profits of about $1.4 billion. Europe's airlines would earn about $500 million and the Middle East and Latin American $100 million each.
Clark said the next 20 to 30 years would see the emergence of Asia as the dominant force in civil aviation.
"It will be very difficult for the Americans and Europeans to accept. Asian markets will drive consumer demand which in turn will drive the whole supply chain of the aviation industry, and we're seeing that already."
Airline profits will likely plummet this year because of natural disasters, political violence and higher fuel prices, an industry group said Monday.
Airlines will probably earn about $4 billion in 2011, down from $18 billion last year, the International Air Transport Association said. IATA's previous forecast in March estimated 2011 profits of $8.6 billion.
"Natural disasters in Japan, unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, plus the sharp rise in oil prices have slashed industry profit expectations," IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani said in a statement. "That we are making any money at all in a year with this combination of unprecedented shocks is a result of a very fragile balance."
Higher fuel costs -- crude rose to $115 last month from $84 in February -- are the largest obstacle to airline profitability, IATA said.
The industry's fuel bill will likely rise by $10 billion this year to $176 billion and fuel now accounts for 30 percent of an airline's costs, up from 13 percent in 2001, IATA said.
Airlines are counting on continued growth in the global economy to help offset higher oil prices. Passenger numbers will likely increase 4.4 percent this year while cargo should grow 5.5 percent, though both forecasts are below IATA's March estimates.
"The corporate sector is cash-rich, business confidence is high, and world trade continues to expand," IATA said. "The key risk to this outlook is a weakening of global economic growth."
IATA expects a razor thin 0.7 percent profit margin for airlines this year on revenue of $598 billion.
Airline executives criticized a new European Union plan that would make carriers pay for carbon dioxide emissions that exceed a limit. The Emissions Trading Scheme is scheduled to begin on January 1 and will likely lead other countries and jurisdictions to implement similar taxes over the next few years, said Tim Clark, president of Dubai-based Emirates Airline, the world's largest carrier by international passenger traffic.
"The emission targets are very difficult. It's an incredibly big task," Clark said during a panel discussion after IATA's general assembly meeting in Singapore.
Until global emissions standards are in place, Europe's carbon tax on airlines will likely lead carriers to avoid making connections in Europe if possible, said Antonio Vazquez, chairman of IAG, the parent of British Airways and Iberia.
Industry officials in the U.S. and China have said they will challenge Europe's emission tax plan in court. Airline executives seemed resigned to the new cost and said it will likely lead to higher ticket prices.
"We just have to face it and do it," said Emirsyah Satar, chief executive of Garuda Indonesia. "It will be passed on to the consumer. It just creates more costs at a time when we're struggling."
IATA said Asian airlines would have the biggest profits this year, predicting earnings of $2.1 billion while North American carriers would see profits of about $1.4 billion. Europe's airlines would earn about $500 million and the Middle East and Latin American $100 million each.
Clark said the next 20 to 30 years would see the emergence of Asia as the dominant force in civil aviation.
"It will be very difficult for the Americans and Europeans to accept. Asian markets will drive consumer demand which in turn will drive the whole supply chain of the aviation industry, and we're seeing that already."
Isra-Mart srl: EU Plans to Place Emission Restrictions on All Airlines
www.isra-mart.com
Isra-Mart news:
Global airlines have cut their expected profits for 2011 by more than half of what they originally expected on Monday after rising oil prices and disorder in North Africa, Japan and the Middle East have taken a toll on the recovery of the industry. In addition, the representative of the majority of the global carriers, International Air Transport Association (IATA), said there would be an impending trade war if Europe went ahead with their plan to force carriers to join an emissions trading agenda next year.
Under this Emission Trading Scheme, the European Union would require carriers to purchase permits for each and every ton of carbon dioxide the release into the atmosphere over a given cap. However, the EU has said that they would exempt airlines based out of nations that are already taking equivalent steps to cut down on emissions.
"We do not have the same level of sophistication or maturity in trading of carbon credits and therefore any such new policy or levy on Indian carriers flying to Europe would be unfair", said Vijay Mallya of Kingfisher Airlines in India. He agrees with others that this is an unfair rule to place on developing countries. "Now it's a government-to-government matter, not an airline-specific matter", he said.
Isra-Mart news:
Global airlines have cut their expected profits for 2011 by more than half of what they originally expected on Monday after rising oil prices and disorder in North Africa, Japan and the Middle East have taken a toll on the recovery of the industry. In addition, the representative of the majority of the global carriers, International Air Transport Association (IATA), said there would be an impending trade war if Europe went ahead with their plan to force carriers to join an emissions trading agenda next year.
Under this Emission Trading Scheme, the European Union would require carriers to purchase permits for each and every ton of carbon dioxide the release into the atmosphere over a given cap. However, the EU has said that they would exempt airlines based out of nations that are already taking equivalent steps to cut down on emissions.
"We do not have the same level of sophistication or maturity in trading of carbon credits and therefore any such new policy or levy on Indian carriers flying to Europe would be unfair", said Vijay Mallya of Kingfisher Airlines in India. He agrees with others that this is an unfair rule to place on developing countries. "Now it's a government-to-government matter, not an airline-specific matter", he said.
Isra-Mart srl: Bisignani to EU: Scrap ‘illegal’ ETS
www.isra-mart.com
Isra-Mart news:
Outgoing IATA DG and CEO Giovanni Bisignani labeled the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme "illegal" and called for airlines' inclusion in the scheme starting next year to be abandoned, warning that a trade war is possible. Bisignani's comments, made at IATA’s 67th AGM in Singapore Monday, came as EU Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard rejected any yielding over the EU ETS's inclusion of aviation from 2012.
Bisignani warned media that there are a growing number of states strongly opposed to the "illegal scheme." The outgoing DG singled out China as an example of a state expressing serious concerns with murmurs of a trade war (ATW Daily News, May 16). "We have to avoid retaliation because the risk of retaliation for a Europe that is in survival mode would be the kiss of the death," Bisignani said. "Uncoordinated and punitive regional measures distort markets and undermine global efforts to reduce emissions. The EU ETS is a $1.5 billion cash grab that will do nothing to reduce emissions."
Bisignani noted that the Dutch government has repealed a $412 million departure tax because it cost the Netherlands' economy $1.6 billon.
"Similarly, the Irish government is planning to cancel its $165 million travel tax because it has cost the economy $494 million and 3,000 jobs," he added. "Don’t kill the goose that lays golden eggs. Aviation facilitates the global trade that is stimulating economies and restoring government budgets … It is time to be serious about climate change and honest in developing global solutions."
Separately, Bisignani urged the development of a "checkpoint of the future" for aviation security to lessen the hassle factor of air travel (ATW's Airports Today, Jan. 5). "Aviation is much more secure today than in 2001, at a cost of $7.4 billion annually," he explained. "But our passengers only see hassle because governments are not working together. Passengers should be able to get from curb to gate with dignity—without stopping, stripping, unpacking and certainly without groping. We must make coordinated investments for civilized flying."
Bisignani also turned his sights on what he termed "big oil" and called on petroleum companies to commercialize sustainable biofuels at competitive prices to meet agreed targets. "Big oil is green in its advertising but not in its actions," he charged. "It prefers to pocket the $1 trillion in profits that the Big 5 made over the last decade than to invest in green initiatives."
Isra-Mart news:
Outgoing IATA DG and CEO Giovanni Bisignani labeled the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme "illegal" and called for airlines' inclusion in the scheme starting next year to be abandoned, warning that a trade war is possible. Bisignani's comments, made at IATA’s 67th AGM in Singapore Monday, came as EU Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard rejected any yielding over the EU ETS's inclusion of aviation from 2012.
Bisignani warned media that there are a growing number of states strongly opposed to the "illegal scheme." The outgoing DG singled out China as an example of a state expressing serious concerns with murmurs of a trade war (ATW Daily News, May 16). "We have to avoid retaliation because the risk of retaliation for a Europe that is in survival mode would be the kiss of the death," Bisignani said. "Uncoordinated and punitive regional measures distort markets and undermine global efforts to reduce emissions. The EU ETS is a $1.5 billion cash grab that will do nothing to reduce emissions."
Bisignani noted that the Dutch government has repealed a $412 million departure tax because it cost the Netherlands' economy $1.6 billon.
"Similarly, the Irish government is planning to cancel its $165 million travel tax because it has cost the economy $494 million and 3,000 jobs," he added. "Don’t kill the goose that lays golden eggs. Aviation facilitates the global trade that is stimulating economies and restoring government budgets … It is time to be serious about climate change and honest in developing global solutions."
Separately, Bisignani urged the development of a "checkpoint of the future" for aviation security to lessen the hassle factor of air travel (ATW's Airports Today, Jan. 5). "Aviation is much more secure today than in 2001, at a cost of $7.4 billion annually," he explained. "But our passengers only see hassle because governments are not working together. Passengers should be able to get from curb to gate with dignity—without stopping, stripping, unpacking and certainly without groping. We must make coordinated investments for civilized flying."
Bisignani also turned his sights on what he termed "big oil" and called on petroleum companies to commercialize sustainable biofuels at competitive prices to meet agreed targets. "Big oil is green in its advertising but not in its actions," he charged. "It prefers to pocket the $1 trillion in profits that the Big 5 made over the last decade than to invest in green initiatives."
Isra-Mart srl: The EU will lead the world towards lower C02 emissions from aviation
www.isra-mart.com
Isra-Mart news:
Including aviation in the EU's emissions trading scheme does not violate international trade law and will in fact pave the way for other nations to develop their own emissions trading systems, argues Eberhard Rhein.
"As of January 2012, the EU will formally include aviation [in] its emission trading system. From that date onwards all airline companies, domestic and foreign, will require allocations for C02 emissions, no different from power, steel or chemical companies, for operating in the EU.
The allocations for 2012 will be equal to 95% of the average 2004-06 emissions of air carriers operating between EU airports and destinations/origins abroad. From 2013 emission allowances will decline progressively and will have to be bought, by auctioning.
By applying its emission trading system to aviation the EU hopes to decrease annual C02 emissions from carriers operating between [the] EU and third countries until 2020 from 300 million tons to 200 million, instead of seeing them rise to 500 million tons. This would be a major achievement in this fast-growing sector of C02 emissions.
Indeed, global C02 emissions from aviation are expected to rise from about 3% of total emissions to 5% in the next few decades!
Airlines have four basic options to minimise payments for allocations:
* Stop flying to and from EU airports.
* Improve airport management in view of minimising queuing on the tarmac or in the sky.
* Introduce more fuel-efficient planes.
* Use a mixture of kerosene and biofuels.
The first option is theoretical. EU airlines would have to re-locate their basis and non-EU companies would lose an attractive market.
The second option should go without saying, if only for economic considerations. Replacing old aircraft is in full swing, but could accelerate, though there are limits on turbine fuel efficiency.
In the final analysis, engine manufacturers will have to push the development of engines able to operate on biofuels. Tests demonstrate the possibility of mixing conventional kerosene with biofuels.
The EU decision to oblige third-country carriers to comply with domestic EU climate legislation is without precedent. It has understandably provoked furious reactions from airline companies and associations across the world, especially from the USA, India and most vehemently from China.
The EU does not infringe upon international law. It had no choice but to treat all carriers alike if it wanted to act effectively against against their emissions, whether by granting emission rights or imposing passenger fees or kerosene taxes.
The Kyoto Protocol had exempted international air transport from the scope of its provisions and referred emissions from airlines to the ICAO, which after finding it impossible to reach a solution, left it to member countries to act.
It is only after failure to negotiate a global solution that the EU Commission has tabled its proposals in 2006 [sic], which were adopted in 2009 for entry into force in 2012. The international community therefore had plenty of time to negotiate an alternative solution like a mandatory kerosene tax.
It remains to be seen how third countries will react next year, when the system will start operating.
China threatens with retaliation against EU airlines flying to China. If China were to impose a fee applicable only to European airlines, it would violate WTO obligations not to discriminate between different suppliers of services. The EU would have to react fiercely because such a move would make it impossible for EU carriers to compete in the Chinese air market.
The EU action is fully in line with international efforts to combat climate change. All countries should introduce similar measures and negotiate arrangements with the EU to adapt their respective actions.
The ideal outcome should be an international convention to be negotiated under ICAO auspices, committing all ICAO members to take identical and verifiable action against rising C02 emissions from aviation.
Simultaneously with the entry into force of its emission trading system for aviation at the beginning of 2012, the EU should declare its willingness to phase out its bilateral system in favour of an equally effective global one."
Isra-Mart news:
Including aviation in the EU's emissions trading scheme does not violate international trade law and will in fact pave the way for other nations to develop their own emissions trading systems, argues Eberhard Rhein.
"As of January 2012, the EU will formally include aviation [in] its emission trading system. From that date onwards all airline companies, domestic and foreign, will require allocations for C02 emissions, no different from power, steel or chemical companies, for operating in the EU.
The allocations for 2012 will be equal to 95% of the average 2004-06 emissions of air carriers operating between EU airports and destinations/origins abroad. From 2013 emission allowances will decline progressively and will have to be bought, by auctioning.
By applying its emission trading system to aviation the EU hopes to decrease annual C02 emissions from carriers operating between [the] EU and third countries until 2020 from 300 million tons to 200 million, instead of seeing them rise to 500 million tons. This would be a major achievement in this fast-growing sector of C02 emissions.
Indeed, global C02 emissions from aviation are expected to rise from about 3% of total emissions to 5% in the next few decades!
Airlines have four basic options to minimise payments for allocations:
* Stop flying to and from EU airports.
* Improve airport management in view of minimising queuing on the tarmac or in the sky.
* Introduce more fuel-efficient planes.
* Use a mixture of kerosene and biofuels.
The first option is theoretical. EU airlines would have to re-locate their basis and non-EU companies would lose an attractive market.
The second option should go without saying, if only for economic considerations. Replacing old aircraft is in full swing, but could accelerate, though there are limits on turbine fuel efficiency.
In the final analysis, engine manufacturers will have to push the development of engines able to operate on biofuels. Tests demonstrate the possibility of mixing conventional kerosene with biofuels.
The EU decision to oblige third-country carriers to comply with domestic EU climate legislation is without precedent. It has understandably provoked furious reactions from airline companies and associations across the world, especially from the USA, India and most vehemently from China.
The EU does not infringe upon international law. It had no choice but to treat all carriers alike if it wanted to act effectively against against their emissions, whether by granting emission rights or imposing passenger fees or kerosene taxes.
The Kyoto Protocol had exempted international air transport from the scope of its provisions and referred emissions from airlines to the ICAO, which after finding it impossible to reach a solution, left it to member countries to act.
It is only after failure to negotiate a global solution that the EU Commission has tabled its proposals in 2006 [sic], which were adopted in 2009 for entry into force in 2012. The international community therefore had plenty of time to negotiate an alternative solution like a mandatory kerosene tax.
It remains to be seen how third countries will react next year, when the system will start operating.
China threatens with retaliation against EU airlines flying to China. If China were to impose a fee applicable only to European airlines, it would violate WTO obligations not to discriminate between different suppliers of services. The EU would have to react fiercely because such a move would make it impossible for EU carriers to compete in the Chinese air market.
The EU action is fully in line with international efforts to combat climate change. All countries should introduce similar measures and negotiate arrangements with the EU to adapt their respective actions.
The ideal outcome should be an international convention to be negotiated under ICAO auspices, committing all ICAO members to take identical and verifiable action against rising C02 emissions from aviation.
Simultaneously with the entry into force of its emission trading system for aviation at the beginning of 2012, the EU should declare its willingness to phase out its bilateral system in favour of an equally effective global one."
Isra-Mart srl: Airbus joins argument over EU's emissions trading policy
www.isra-mart.com
With the European Commission resolved to press ahead with implementation of legislation intended to bring the aviation sector within the ambit of the EU's emissions trading scheme from January 2012, European aviation and aerospace firms are developing jitters over likely retaliatory moves by China and other affected countries.
In one such clear indication Airbus chief Tom Enders has warned Brussels it would provoke a trade war with China and other powerful countries should it persist with plans to make international airlines pay for their carbon emissions.
So far it had been European airlines had been expressing opposition to a move by the EU to bring aviation under the ambit of the emissions trading scheme. The entry of Airbus into the controversy will only strengthen opposition within the EU.
According to reports in the London business daily, The Financial Times, Tom Enders has written to EU climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, that ''it is madness to risk retaliation'' from influential players such as the Americans and the Chinese.
US airlines are already battling the EU through a legal challenge before the European Court of Justice. Chinese aviation officials raised a stink last month and openly urged their government to retaliate against the EU with trade measures.
Ms Hedegaard revealed that officials from Beijing and Brussels were discussing whether China qualified for exemptions under a clause in the European rules that partially exempts airlines from countries with equivalent carbon emission measures.
In a pre-emptive move, China announced plans recently to curb aviation emissions. Ms Hedegaard said, ''we are trying to get more information about what does it exactly imply''.
With the European Commission resolved to press ahead with implementation of legislation intended to bring the aviation sector within the ambit of the EU's emissions trading scheme from January 2012, European aviation and aerospace firms are developing jitters over likely retaliatory moves by China and other affected countries.
In one such clear indication Airbus chief Tom Enders has warned Brussels it would provoke a trade war with China and other powerful countries should it persist with plans to make international airlines pay for their carbon emissions.
So far it had been European airlines had been expressing opposition to a move by the EU to bring aviation under the ambit of the emissions trading scheme. The entry of Airbus into the controversy will only strengthen opposition within the EU.
According to reports in the London business daily, The Financial Times, Tom Enders has written to EU climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, that ''it is madness to risk retaliation'' from influential players such as the Americans and the Chinese.
US airlines are already battling the EU through a legal challenge before the European Court of Justice. Chinese aviation officials raised a stink last month and openly urged their government to retaliate against the EU with trade measures.
Ms Hedegaard revealed that officials from Beijing and Brussels were discussing whether China qualified for exemptions under a clause in the European rules that partially exempts airlines from countries with equivalent carbon emission measures.
In a pre-emptive move, China announced plans recently to curb aviation emissions. Ms Hedegaard said, ''we are trying to get more information about what does it exactly imply''.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Isra-Mart srl : Record-breaking Greenhouse Gas Emissions, but Carbon Market Failing
www.isra-mart.com
Isra-Mart news:
Greenhouse gas emissions dropped in 2009 in the wake of the Great Recession. Research now shows emissions rebounded quickly in 2010, setting a new all-time record.
In a press release, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the prospect of limiting the global increase in temperature to no more than 2 ºC is getting bleaker. Commenting on the new data, economist Nicholas Stern said emissions are “now close to being back on a ‘business as usual’ path.”
Nonetheless, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, called for an even stricter goal in a speech at an emissions trading conference. “Two degrees is not enough – we should be thinking of 1.5 ºC,” she said.
Canada’s emissions likewise fell in 2009, as described in the government’s emissions report to the United Nations. However, they deliberately omitted details on tar sands operations’ emissions, which showed a 20 percent rise in pollution in 2009.
Despite record emissions, international carbon trading shrank for the first time since the program began in 2005, from $143.7 billion to $141.9 billion. The portion for the Clean Development Mechanism, aimed at helping developing countries put low-emission options in place, fell by nearly half, in large part because of uncertainties about the successor to the Kyoto Protocol. Because of this drop, Andrew Steer, the World Bank’s Special Envoy for Climate Change, told the Guardian, “The [carbon] market is failing us.”
Germany, Others Flee Nuclear
Germany had planned to expand its nuclear program, until Japan’s Fukushima disaster led to fresh debates over nuclear power. Now the government has announced it will close all the country’s nuclear power plants by 2022. The country had already shut down seven of its oldest nuclear plants in March, and those will remain off.
Germany’s largest utility, E.ON, is upset about the policy reversal and plans to sue the government for damages. E.ON and other big operators are facing big losses, not just because of the policy change but also because “customers are fleeing in droves” to companies that offer nuclear- and coal-free electricity.
Grid operators had already warned that Germany may suffer blackouts this summer if these nuclear plants were to remain off, and other European countries may likewise faceblackouts due to a spring drought that has left river and reservoir levels low.
To make up for lost electricity from nuclear plants, Germany may turn to higher-emission sources like coal in the short run, boosting its carbon dioxide emissions by about 40 million metric tons, or around 5 percent. The move is a “shot in Russia’s arm,” said Steve LeVine of Foreign Policy, since it will make Germany even more reliant on natural gas from Russia, holder of the world’s largest proven reserves. Already Germany has become more reliant on heavily-nuclear France, becoming a net importer of electricity from them.
In the longer term, the government is raising its targets for renewable energy, aiming to double its share, from 17 percent today to 35 percent by 2020. In 1997, Germany set a target of achieving 14 percent renewables by 2010, but met the target early, in 2007. Integrating a large share of renewables is easier than thought before, according to a new analysis by the IEA.
Switzerland also decided to phase out nuclear power, albeit on a slower schedule—by 2034. Nuclear power supplies 40 percent of the country’s electricity, making it one of the world’s most nuclear-reliant countries.
Plea for Oil
Meanwhile, oil prices have remained high, with Brent crude remaining above $110 a barrel, leading the International Energy Agency in mid-May to make a rare formal plea to the world’s oil producers to raise their production, because continued high prices could hurt economic growth.
Saudi Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal agreed oil prices are too high, saying he would like them to be around $70 to $80 a barrel. “We don’t want the West to go and find alternatives, because, clearly, the higher the price of oil goes, the more they have incentives to go and find alternatives,” Talal told CNN.
But more than a dozen experts surveyed by Reuters said members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are unlikely to raise production quotas at their upcoming meeting.
In part this is because there’s disarray over who will even attend the meeting. Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sacked the country’s oil minister and announced he would take on the job himself, and planned to represent Iran at the OPEC meeting. But a few days later this was reversed, after the country’s Guardian Council said Ahmadinejad wasn’t allowed to take on the oil minister job.
Who might represent Libya has also been up in the air, after Shokri Ghanem, head of the national oil company, was reported to have defected from Muammar Gaddafi’s government. He showed up recently in Italy, announcing at a press conference that he had in fact defected, but is undecided about working with the rebels.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
Isra-Mart news:
Greenhouse gas emissions dropped in 2009 in the wake of the Great Recession. Research now shows emissions rebounded quickly in 2010, setting a new all-time record.
In a press release, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the prospect of limiting the global increase in temperature to no more than 2 ºC is getting bleaker. Commenting on the new data, economist Nicholas Stern said emissions are “now close to being back on a ‘business as usual’ path.”
Nonetheless, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, called for an even stricter goal in a speech at an emissions trading conference. “Two degrees is not enough – we should be thinking of 1.5 ºC,” she said.
Canada’s emissions likewise fell in 2009, as described in the government’s emissions report to the United Nations. However, they deliberately omitted details on tar sands operations’ emissions, which showed a 20 percent rise in pollution in 2009.
Despite record emissions, international carbon trading shrank for the first time since the program began in 2005, from $143.7 billion to $141.9 billion. The portion for the Clean Development Mechanism, aimed at helping developing countries put low-emission options in place, fell by nearly half, in large part because of uncertainties about the successor to the Kyoto Protocol. Because of this drop, Andrew Steer, the World Bank’s Special Envoy for Climate Change, told the Guardian, “The [carbon] market is failing us.”
Germany, Others Flee Nuclear
Germany had planned to expand its nuclear program, until Japan’s Fukushima disaster led to fresh debates over nuclear power. Now the government has announced it will close all the country’s nuclear power plants by 2022. The country had already shut down seven of its oldest nuclear plants in March, and those will remain off.
Germany’s largest utility, E.ON, is upset about the policy reversal and plans to sue the government for damages. E.ON and other big operators are facing big losses, not just because of the policy change but also because “customers are fleeing in droves” to companies that offer nuclear- and coal-free electricity.
Grid operators had already warned that Germany may suffer blackouts this summer if these nuclear plants were to remain off, and other European countries may likewise faceblackouts due to a spring drought that has left river and reservoir levels low.
To make up for lost electricity from nuclear plants, Germany may turn to higher-emission sources like coal in the short run, boosting its carbon dioxide emissions by about 40 million metric tons, or around 5 percent. The move is a “shot in Russia’s arm,” said Steve LeVine of Foreign Policy, since it will make Germany even more reliant on natural gas from Russia, holder of the world’s largest proven reserves. Already Germany has become more reliant on heavily-nuclear France, becoming a net importer of electricity from them.
In the longer term, the government is raising its targets for renewable energy, aiming to double its share, from 17 percent today to 35 percent by 2020. In 1997, Germany set a target of achieving 14 percent renewables by 2010, but met the target early, in 2007. Integrating a large share of renewables is easier than thought before, according to a new analysis by the IEA.
Switzerland also decided to phase out nuclear power, albeit on a slower schedule—by 2034. Nuclear power supplies 40 percent of the country’s electricity, making it one of the world’s most nuclear-reliant countries.
Plea for Oil
Meanwhile, oil prices have remained high, with Brent crude remaining above $110 a barrel, leading the International Energy Agency in mid-May to make a rare formal plea to the world’s oil producers to raise their production, because continued high prices could hurt economic growth.
Saudi Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal agreed oil prices are too high, saying he would like them to be around $70 to $80 a barrel. “We don’t want the West to go and find alternatives, because, clearly, the higher the price of oil goes, the more they have incentives to go and find alternatives,” Talal told CNN.
But more than a dozen experts surveyed by Reuters said members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are unlikely to raise production quotas at their upcoming meeting.
In part this is because there’s disarray over who will even attend the meeting. Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sacked the country’s oil minister and announced he would take on the job himself, and planned to represent Iran at the OPEC meeting. But a few days later this was reversed, after the country’s Guardian Council said Ahmadinejad wasn’t allowed to take on the oil minister job.
Who might represent Libya has also been up in the air, after Shokri Ghanem, head of the national oil company, was reported to have defected from Muammar Gaddafi’s government. He showed up recently in Italy, announcing at a press conference that he had in fact defected, but is undecided about working with the rebels.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
