Isra-Mart srl: Branson predicts aviation could be among 'cleanest' industries within 10 years

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Half the fuel used by airlines could be sustainably sourced biofuels by the end of the decade, according to Sir Richard Branson.

The Virgin Atlantic founder and serial entrepreneur made the claim at the launch yesterday of RenewableJetFuels.org, a website rating around 40 companies producing green aviation fuels based on their economic viability, scalability and sustainability.

New Zealand firm Lanzatech, which is pioneering a method of producing biofuels from steel production waste gases with Virgin, and California's SG Biofuels, seized the top spots in the new rankings, while Solazyme and Neste, both of which have deals in place with leading airlines, also appear in the top 10.

Currently, around a third of the companies on the list are judged to be "credible" producers of commercial volumes of biofuels.

However, suppliers seeking to improve their rankings can upload new data on their biofuels to a database hosted by academic publisher Elsevier, which will then be assessed by independent experts.

The approach has been imported from ShippingEfficiency.org, a website showing the environmental performance of more than 60,000 international vessels, which is also backed by Branson's Carbon War Room organisation.

Branson thinks the economic case for switching to jet biofuels is strengthening as a result of rising fuel costs that will see airlines spend $200bn on fuel in 2011, a huge rise on the $140bn spent in 2010.

He told the Guardian that the fact airplanes only have "about 1,700" filling stations, as opposed to the millions worldwide that serve land transport, also means aviation biofuels could be rolled out relatively quickly.

"Once the breakthrough takes place, getting to 50-100 per cent [sustainable biofuel] is not unrealistic," he told the paper. "Aviation fuel is 25-40 per cent of the running costs of airlines, so the industry is open to new fuels."

Aviation accounts for around three per cent of global emissions, and while a global deal to limit its impact has proved elusive, the EU will force airlines to buy carbon credits to cover emissions from flights in and out of Europe from January 2012.

Biofuels are seen as a method of reducing emissions from the sector, although campaigners argue there is insufficient feedstock to supply the industry and increasing demand for energy crops will undermine food production.

Lord Adair Turner, chairman of the Committee on Climate Change, has even suggested that aviation may prove a high-carbon exception in a future low-carbon world.

However, Branson is confident biofuels could enable low-carbon commercial flights within a few years.

"We're heading in the right direction," he told the Guardian. "The industry could go from one of the dirtiest to one of the cleanest in 10 years. We are investing in different companies and really beginning to see traction."

But Jean Leston, senior transport policy advisor at WWF-UK, did not share his enthusiasm.

"Richard Branson has always been an optimist about biofuels but I hadn't realised he was a fantasist," she said. "We're a long way away from having the quantities of biofuels that Branson is counting on, let alone ensuring that these have minimal impacts and are from sustainable sources."