Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Isra-Mart srl: UK spot natural gas down 21% on Norwegian flows

www.isramart.com

The UK prompt gas market crashed on Wednesday morning as a jump in Norwegian flows to the UK caused an oversupply as temperatures above seasonal norms meant low demand continued.

The Within-day contract reached a low of 47.10 pence/therm (54.64 euro cents/therm), according to traders, 9.90 p/therm or 21% below the price at the close of the previous session.

By 11:50 GMT, Within-day was back to 50.60 p/therm.

The key Day-ahead contract reached a low of 51.50 p/therm, 9% down from Tuesday's close.

"Given the price crash we saw on the prompt this morning, we could see Norwegian flows to the UK fall back again, but if they need to hit volume targets by the end of the year the higher rates could persist," said one trader.

Flows through the Langeled pipe - which links Norway with the UK - had risen to a rate of around 70 million cubic metres (Mm³)/day by Wednesday morning, up from below 40Mm³/day the previous afternoon.

Imports through the BBL pipeline between the Netherlands and the UK also jumped on Wednesday morning. This was one day later than the typical rise in BBL imports that usually comes on 1 November, when the higher-volume winter period of the contract between Dutch GasTerra and Britain's Centrica kicks in.

System length was greater than 40Mm³ early on, but a rise in UK exports through the Interconnector pipe to Belgium helped bring the market closer into balance.

Other prompt and near-term contracts also traded down, on the arrival of warmer weather forecasts for the coming week, which would push demand further below normal levels.