Global CO2 emissions set to swell 40%

Worldwide carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise almost 40 per cent by 2030.

If no action is taken to curtail them, carbon dioxide emissions from energy use worldwide will climb from 29 billion tonnes in 2006 to over 40 billion tonnes in 2030, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistics arm of the US energy department, said Wednesday.

Much of the increase in emissions is projected to occur among developing countries, the EIA said.

In 2006, GHGs from the developing world exceeded GHGs from the US and other rich countries by 14 per cent.

By 2030, however, GHGs from developing countries like China and India will be 77 per cent higher than those of the developed world, the EIA said in its annual report on energy consumption.

That’s due to the EIA projection of strong economic growth among developing countries, which will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels as a greater percentage of their populations enter the middle class.

If current laws and policies remain unchanged throughout the projection period, total world energy demand will grow 44 per cent between 2006 and 2030, the EIA said.

Nations outside the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are expected to outpace developed countries in energy consumption.

Liquid fuels

Liquid fuels are expected to remain the world’s dominant energy source through 2030, given their importance in the transportation sector.

The world will need to produce an additional 22 million barrels of oil per day than it did in 2006 to meet the growth in worldwide demand.

To meet it, production of oil from “unconventional” sources like tar sands, biofuels, coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids are expected to rise sharply.

“Particularly strong growth in biofuels consumption is projected for the US, where production of biofuels will increase from 0.3 million barrels per day in 2006 to 1.9 million barrels per day in 2030,” the report says.

Coal

In the absence of national policies or binding international agreements that would limit GHG emissions, world coal consumption is projected to increase from 127 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 190 quadrillion Btu in 2030, the report says.

Much of that increase will come from the non-OECD Asia region, which accounts for nearly 90 per cent of total world increase in coal use from 2006 to 2030.