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And let’s not forget the cement industry, which is a carbon-based industry based on converting limestone at high temperatures. Across the industry globally, every tonne of cement that gets produced, results in around 800 kilogrammes of CO2 emissions. If you add that up, a continued high-growth unabated cement industry could emit as much this century as the full use of current proven natural gas reserves.
There are abatement possibilities for the cement industry. For instance, at Shell we have developed a concrete enhanced by sulphur, called Shell Thiocrete. Studies have shown that Shell Thiocrete could reduce the lifecycle CO2 impact of concrete by 30-50%. The reduction level depends on the specific nature of the application – think of sea walls, pavements and road barriers. Research is currently underway to further extend its applicability and maximise potential CO2 reductions.
So, only five things we need to do. They need to be done, and they need to be done urgently. But open up the early negotiating text now being prepared for Copenhagen, and nearly half of this doesn't get a mention. Apart from land use and forestry, the remainder gets scant mention. Even the notion of a carbon market to drive large-scale deployment is barely touched upon.
I think it is time to replace arcane wording and abstraction with clarity, focus and above all, action. With just 4000 days available to reduce developed country emissions by 20% and see emissions plateau in most developing countries, we no longer have the time for anything less than clearly specified large-scale demonstration and deployment programmes, with matching funding and financing to ensure implementation.
The case for CCS
I’d like to zoom in on one of the clean energy options on the table: CO2 Capture and Storage, or CCS. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), CCS could potentially deliver around half of the total emissions reduction needed to stabilise global CO2 levels by the end of the century. So I hope that climate negotiators will give CCS high priority in the draft texts being negotiated as the basis for a Copenhagen agreement.
So let me discuss the following questions: What’s the case for CCS? What are the key deployment challenges for CCS, and what would be possible solutions? How would CCS fit into a broader climate policy framework?
We all know energy demand will increase during the first half of this century, and that tackling climate threats is an urgent task.
What is very striking is how urgent the task is, how little carbon space there is left, and how much of that space will be taken up by coal-fired power alone!
If we want to limit atmospheric concentrations of CO2 to 450 parts per million, we have only around 64 ppm left. Around 40% of that space will get taken up with existing and new-build coal power generation in just three countries- China, India and the United States - between now and 2050, if no measures are taken to abate emissions. What’s more in the period to 2030, according to IEA statistics, the growth in CO2 emissions from new coal fired power generation in these same three countries would be double the growth in emissions from all the transport in all countries worldwide.
