Isra-Mart srl: Renewables could provide 35 per cent of UK generating capacity by 2020

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Renewable energy sources could account for 35 per cent of the UK's energy generating capacity by 2020 if planning and grid connections are improved, a government-backed report says.

The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) today published an assessment of the deployment costs and potential of a wide range of green energy generation technologies by engineering firm Arup. The work will inform next month's review of support provided by the Renewables Obligation from 2013 to 2017.

The 35 per cent figure comes in the most ambitious of three scenarios that envisage varying levels of barriers to deployment.

Under this scenario, more than 197,000 GWh (gigawatt-hours) of electricity could be produced by renewable energy sources in 2020 and 424,000GWh in 2030, almost a tenfold increase on the 50,000GWh produced last year. In 2009, UK electricity production totalled around 354,000GWh.

Planning legislation, the availability of land, skilled labour and equipment, materials or fuel, as well as the cost of connection to the Grid, will clearly affect this figure, and the more conservative estimates place renewables at 20 to 25 per cent of generating capacity - producing around 105,000GWh and 137,000GWh respectively by 2020 and 220,000GWh or 290,000GWh a decade later. The UK has targeted generating 15 per cent of energy from renewable sources by 2020, which will require over 30 per cent of electricity coming from wind turbines, solar panels and other green technologies.

Offshore and onshore wind energy have "significant deployment potential" of 41GW and 17.3GW respectively by 2030, the report says.

Those still reeling from the feed-in tariff cuts imposed on solar PV yesterday may be interested to read that the sector is considered to have "very significant deployment potential of 16.6GW by 2030", albeit with a high capital expenditure.

Marine energy, particularly tidal stream generation, could add another 4GW by 2030, although the report noted that the costs and funding gaps are still challenging.

Smaller contributions are also expected from geothermal, thought to be a favourite of climate change minister Greg Barker, and energy from waste.

"In many cases the generation potential of these technologies is greater than we expected," said Simon Power, technical director for the study at Arup.

The government will consult in July on changing the levels different technologies receive, and a DECC spokesman told BusinessGreen that the report would be used to inform its thinking.

However, he insisted that the government would not "pick winners" on the basis of this report alone, and that there is "still a lot of modelling to be done".