Isra-Mart srl: Mining job losses trivial under tax

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A new study by the Australia Institute says carbon pricing will have virtually no impact on mining jobs over the next decade.

Public policy think tank the Australia Institute tested the view put by the Minerals Council of Australia that an emissions trading scheme (ETS) would cut jobs by 23,510.

But, based on labour force data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Household and Income Labour Dynamics of Australia (HILDA) surveys from 2001 to 2008, the study found that over a decade the average annual projected unemployment rate would be 0.016 percentage points higher than otherwise.

'The projected job losses from the ETS, particularly when considered over a 10-year time horizon, are in a statistical sense close to invisible with respect to employment and unemployment stocks, and trivial with respect to aggregate flows in the labour market,' the study found.

'With respect to mining sector employment the projected losses are a very small proportion of overall inflows to and outflows from mining.'

Turnover of workers is a big factor within the mining industry, with between 26 and 36 per cent of employees joining or leaving every year.

But the study found that some sectors would be harder hit than others and there remained 'clear roles for government to minimise the personal costs for those so affected'.

The Gillard government plans to release details of its ETS within weeks, with legislation to go to parliament in September and a fixed carbon price to start on July 1, 2012.

The federal opposition says the tax will cost thousands of jobs and close more than a dozen coal mines.

Report co-author Professor Bruce Chapman, from the Australian National University, told ABC Radio the impact on job flows were so small 'you really won't be able to see it in the data'.

'I would say to those people who imagine that this is a big number and a big concern they are missing the point as to how dynamic the labour market really is,' Prof Chapman said.

Opposition climate spokesman Greg Hunt said he did not believe the report.

'My view and our view is the 23,500 jobs for blue-collar workers matter and they matter an extraordinary amount,' Mr Hunt said.

'And if the prime minister agrees that 23,500 jobs don't matter this is her chance to say so today.'