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Wales will struggle to deliver even half its target of deploying 4GW of wave and tidal energy devices by 2025 because of environmental and technological constraints, according to a three-year project mapping marine energy resources in Welsh waters.
The final report of the Marine Renewable Energy Strategic Framework (MRESF) was launched by Welsh environment minister Jane Davidson on Monday, setting out three possible development scenarios for marine energy in Wales, covering key environmental issues such as the potential risk of fish colliding with a device.
Conducted by RPS Group, the report concludes Wales can sustainably deliver 1.5GW of marine energy if it develops areas of the seabed with fewer constraints or conflicts of interests with existing stakeholders.
A more adventurous "medium energy" scenario could see between 3.7GW and 5.1GW installed capacity. However, that would require some areas of land that face significant "constraint issues" to be developed, which would probably delay or even stop projects.
The highest energy scenario identifies 6.4GW of marine energy capacity that could potentially be delivered. However, RPS warned against the government pursuing this high-yield scenario as it would require every area with significant constraints to be developed.
"There is potential for the 4GW installed capacity in the main by 2025 [...] to be met and even exceeded," said the report "However, to do so would require development in areas subject to significant levels of constraint.
"Given the types and level of constraint presented in the high-energy scenario, [...] it is difficult to put forward an argument that the consenting of development across the entire high-energy scenario resource area could be described as 'sustainable development path'."
However, despite the limited development scenarios on offer, Davidson welcomed the findings of the report for showing there is still the potential for Welsh waters to produce enough energy to power up to "two million homes per year" – the equivalent of 2GW of energy.
"The MRESF study has shown the huge energy potential that lies within our seas and has provided some genuinely useful guidance that will aid energy developers in their efforts to harness sea power," she said.
She also announced that the Welsh Assembly Government and The Crown Estate would jointly sign a letter of intent to work together to support marine energy manufacturing in Wales and to ensure the deployment of marine energy devices will not be delayed by infrastructure requirements.
"Ports and harbours are a vital part of the marine renewable energy supply chain," she said. "This agreement with The Crown Estate will help us to fast-track our marine energy policies and transform our marine potential into usable and renewable energy and new green jobs for Wales."