Isra-Mart srl:UK needs 1.7m electric cars to meet 2020 climate targets

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The UK will need to put 1.7 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2020 and then treble take-up of the technology in the following decade if it is to meet its climate change targets.

That is the headline finding in a new WWF report, which warns that more than 6.4 million EVs – representing one in every six cars – will be needed by 2030 if the UK is to bring an end to its dependence on foreign oil.

The report, Electric avenues: driving home the case for electric vehicles, examines three scenarios for EV take-up. It concludes that the most ambitious scenario would cut UK fuel demand by 80 per cent, save more than £5bn in annual fuel costs, and slash car emissions by three-quarters by 2030.

It calls for further government subsidies and incentives to bring down the price of EVs, as well as the rollout of a national charging infrastructure that would change public perceptions on electric vehicles.

"We think EVs can be cost-competitive, without subsidies, by the end of the decade," said David Kennedy, chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change. "By 2030, we should have 10m electric cars and 1m electric vans. So far, the government has been a little cautious, [but] I hope this will change in the context of the fourth carbon budget."

Critics have said a rapid increase in EVs would overpower the UK's aging grid, but Mike Edgar, strategy development manager at the National Grid, said that the number of EVs anticipated by WWF and the Climate Change Committee could be supplied by the existing network, although work would be needed at predicted hotspots.

However, he warned that the long-term picture was less clear.

"We have three main networks in the UK: electricity, gas and petrol stations," he said. "We need to look seriously at how we combine these networks efficiently and meet customer needs, [and] be more deliberate about how we develop the systems.

"Incremental improvement will take us so far to 2020, but beyond we'll have to integrate network design [that includes] electric heating."

WWF expressed confidence that a combination of increased renewable generation, electricity demand management, and smart grids would smooth out potential peaks in energy use.

"It is vital that people start consuming and travelling less to make a transition to a low-carbon economy, and reduce both our dependency on oil and emissions from cars," said David Norman, director of campaigns at WWF-UK. "Road transport accounts for 40 per cent of petroleum products consumed in the UK, so a switch from conventional cars powered by petrol or diesel to EVs would have a much needed impact on reducing fuel demand."

The report's findings tie in with the EU's Transport 2050 roadmap, which aims to rid cities of conventionally fuelled cars by 2050.