Isra-Mart srl:Report: Decade of low carbon transition not moving fast enough

www.isra-mart.com

Isra-Mart srl news:

The transition towards low carbon technologies will continue over the next decade, but will not accelerate quickly enough to deliver the deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions scientists believe are necessary.

That is the conclusion of a major new report released yesterday by global risk management firm DNV, which attempts to predict the main technology trends that will occur over the next 10 years.

Entitled Technology Outlook 2020, the report predicts that despite the accelerated roll out of renewable energy and low carbon technologies, a growing global population, rising energy demand and improving living standards will mean that greenhouse gas emissions will still climb 20 per cent.

Speaking at the launch of the report in London yesterday, Elisbeth Harstad, managing director for DNV's Research and Innovation division, said there was a growing consensus that the world would struggle to achieve the UN's stated target of limiting average temperature rises to two degrees Celsius.

"People are much more pessimistic than they were a few years ago about global actions being taken," she said, adding that policy mechanisms such as a global carbon price remained a long way from being adopted. "We may need some disruptive events to happen to make sure this necessary action for tackling climate change happens."

The report predicts that by 2020 the global economy will be consuming resources equivalent to that provided by two planets, while shortages of rare earth minerals will undermine the technology industry and fuel the growth of the recycling sector.

It also warns that large areas of China, India, Australia and the Middle East will face severe water shortages, while famines will become more widespread.

Meanwhile, global sea levels are expected to continue to rise, while there will be little or no summer sea ice in the Arctic region, opening up major new shipping routes.

Despite the bleak climate change outlook, the report predicts many low carbon industries will prosper over the next 10 years, noting that the EU and China will generate one fifth of their energy from renewable sources by 2020, while wind energy will provide eight per cent of global energy.

Thomas Mestl, senior renewable researcher at DNV, said the next decade would see a rapid improvement in the efficiency and effectiveness of renewable energy technologies with the emergence of giant 10MW to 15MW offshore wind turbines and solar photovoltaic systems with conversion rates of up to 30 per cent.

He added that the roll out of these technologies would be supported by the deployment of new energy storage systems and the emergence of cross-border supergrids, such as the new transmission network planned for the North Sea.

The report also predicts the development of a new generation of nuclear power stations, including the emergence of smaller modular reactors that could even be used within the shipping industry. However, as Harstad pointed out, the report was written before the radiation leak in Japan and admitted that the projections were now dependent on whether the crisis proved to be a short-term disruption for the nuclear industry or the trigger for a major rethink of nuclear policy.

In addition to projections for low carbon sectors, the report predicts the fossil fuel industry will continue to play a central role in the energy mix with the proportion of energy derived from coal globally remaining constant at 39 per cent. It also predicts a rapid expansion in shale gas and deepwater oil drilling, with Hartsad warning carbon capture and storage demonstration projects are currently not proceeding as quickly as had been hoped and are unlikely to be widely deployed by 2020.

"Development of technologies for CO2 utilisation – turning CO2 into useful products – will be developed, but will probably struggle to become commercial in 2020," she said.