Could climate prove a change too far for Obama?

PARIS (AFP) – European enthusiasm for President Barack Obama's ambitious programme of US renewal does not hide deep uncertainty over the likelihood of his delivering on measures to combat climate change.

Nine months from UN talks in Denmark, where world leaders will try to wrap up agreement on a new global climate change treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012, there are real fears that events may conspire against Obama.

The depth of the disaster that has befallen the US economy in particular -- witness Friday's announcement of over 650,000 jobs lost in February alone -- and the difficulties Obama has faced getting Congress to greenlight his rescue plans underscore significant obstacles ahead.

Besides, given the US failure to meet its Kyoto commitments -- the protocol was signed by Bill Clinton's administration in 1997 but subsequently rejected by Senate -- European partners retain bitter memories of promises broken.

Several European environment ministers, including those from Denmark, France and Poland, this week met separately with the new team in charge of environment and climate issues for Obama's administration and numerous congressional representatives from both sides, Republican and Democratic.

UN climate chief Yvo de Boer, who was also in Washington for a first contact, restated the "encouragement" he has taken from Obama's stance.

Last month, de Boer described Obama's position on climate change as "a sea change" for the US, but this week, he too underlined the need to listen carefully to the views of Congress.

While Obama eventually got his 787-billion-dollar economic stimulus plan through Congress, battles still loom on healthcare, climate change, energy and education -- not to mention foreign policy.

"The lack of communication between the Senate and the administration around the time of Kyoto was an error we cannot allow to be repeated," de Boer said after this week's talks.

"It is necessary to pay very close attention to what Congress has to say" on the issue of Obama's proposed federal US law to introduce new caps, and subsequently reductions, on national carbon emissions, one of the principal battlegrounds come December's Copenhagen talks.

US emissions are the world's highest per capita, but Obama wants to see a 14 percent reduction from 2005 levels by 2020 and and an 83 percent drop by 2050.

Given the spectacular rise in global emissions and the distinct lack of action under the eight years of George W. Bush's administration, even this effort looks lightweight to some eyes -- but the challenges are, above all, political.

"The language is still as enthusiastic, but we sense a dampener with Congress, which could put the brakes on progress given (economic) difficulties," warned French minister Jean-Louis Borloo.

Observers doubt that Congress will have passed such a law by the time the Copenhagen crunch talks reach their conclusion.

In that event, then, what chance Washington being able to sign up to multilateral commitments in December?

For Denmark's climate minister, Connie Hedegaard, "it's up to the Americans to decide if they need to link the two or not."

She added: "The president and his administration have adopted a high profile on the issue and I don't want to speculate on what will happen if (the domestic law) doesn't work.

"We have to keep up the (international) pressure. Because, if we miss this opportunity, who can say if there will be another chance in 2010 or 2011?"

Carlos Pascual, vice-dDirector of the Brookings Institution, a respected Washington think-tank, says European partners need to be more "realistic."

"The pressures brought on by the state of the US economy are far greater than at the time of Kyoto. We have terrible problems here which we can't just ignore or leave to one side".

"First of all, we need to transform our economy."

With the next set of pre-Copenhagen negotiations scheduled for the end of March in Germany, de Boer stressed that Obama's team has "only been in place for five weeks."

"If the United States comes to Bonn with some basic principles and ideas, that will already be a strong step forward," he said.

Climate change: Acid oceans transform marine life, says study

PARIS (AFP) – Ocean acidification driven by climate change is stripping away the protective shell of tiny yet vital organisms that absorb huge amounts of carbon pollution from the atmosphere, a new study has revealed.

Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the calcium carapace of microscopic animals called foraminifera living in the Southern Ocean have fallen in weight by a third, the study found.

The amoeba-like organisms, about the size of a grain of sand, live in the surface waters of oceans around the world.

They are an important part of the ecological chain and also provide a bulwark against global warming.

They transform carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air into calcium-based shells. When they die, their carbon-rich shells sink to the ocean floor, effectively storing the atmospheric CO2 forever.

Previous studies have shown that other marine animals, notably corals, are losing their ability to form exoskeletons from calcium.

However, the potential causes for this are tangled, and include rising temperatures and nutrient runoff from coastal agriculture as well as acidification.

This is the first study to look specifically at acidification and pin it to greenhouse-gas pollution, which is driven especially by the invisible product of burning oil, gas and coal.

"It is the invasion of anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 that is causing this particular source of acidification," said co-author William Howard of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Center in Hobart, Tasmania.

Howard's team collected shells of one foraminifera species, Globigerina bulloides, as they drifted toward the sea floor, and compared them to older specimens that had sunk several hundred years earlier.

The newer shells had 30-to-35 percent less mass, they reported in the online edition of the journal Nature Geoscience.

"If forams and other shell makers are not making shells, that might change the transfer of carbon from the surface ocean into the deep ocean," said Howard.

"It changes the efficiency of the biological pump, and would tend to lessen the degree to which the ocean takes up carbon. That's a feedback that we have to be concerned about," he said in a phone interview.

Only in the last five years have scientists become aware of the extent of ocean acidification and its potential to disrupt Earth's carbon cycle, which balances the absorption and release of CO2 into the atmospshere.

"The problem with this impact is that it is so persistent and so long-lived, unlike other pollution carbons. We will have a harder time turning this impact around," Howard said.

The geo-chemical mechanisms that buffer acidification work very slowly, he explained.

"It is like taking an antacid tablet for an upset stomach and then having to wait hundreds -- or thousands -- of years for it to work."

If the loss of shell mass threatens the survival of the amoeba-like creatures, it could also disrupt a food chain reaching from the plankton they eat, all the way up to large sea mammal such as whales.

"We don't know yet what those impacts might be," Howard said.

Climate change bad news for most birds: study

PARIS (AFP) – Birds in Europe are already feeling the heat from climate change, with three species suffering reduced ranges or population for every one that benefits from warming, said a study published Wednesday.

Researchers found a strong match between data collected over decades from a continent-wide monitoring network and computer models forecasting the impact of global warming.

"Although we have only a very small actual rise in global average temperatures, it is staggering to realise how much change we are noticing in wildlife populations," said lead author Richard Gregory of the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds in Britain.

"If we don't take our foot off the gas now, our indicator shows that there will be many much worse effects to come."

Any increase in Earth's average temperature above 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times "will create global havoc" for birds and other wildlife, he said in a press statement.

The study, published in the online journal PLoS ONE, analysed data for 122 wild bird species, more than a fifth of the 526 species known to nest in Europe.

"We found that the number being negatively impacted was nearly three times greater than that benefit from climate change," said co-author Frederic Jiguet, a research at France's National Museum of Natural History.

The researchers created the first continent-wide indicator of climate change impact on wildlife.

"Our indicator is the biodiversity equivalent of the FTSE stock exchange, only instead of summarising the changing fortunes of businesses, it summarizes how biodiversity is changing due to climate change," said Stephen Willis of Durham University.

Birds that were predicted to fare well under global warming have expanded their habitats, and those predicted to have done badly declined over the last two decades, he said.

The species that have thrived due to climate change include bee-eater, cirl bunting, hoopoe, golden oriole, goldfinch, collared dove, and four species of warbler: Cetti's, great reed, Sardinian and subalpine.

Those hit hardest by rising temperatures include snipe, meadow pipit, brambling, willow tit, lapwing, thrush nightingale, wood warbler, nutcracker, northern wheatear, and lesser spotted woodpecker.

Brown: US must lead on economy, climate change

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Prime Minister Gordon Brown urged the United States to harness historic global goodwill to pull the world out of its economic slump and lead the charge against climate change.

"We should seize this moment because never before have I seen a world willing to come together so much, never before has that been more needed," he said in a landmark speech to a rare joint session of the US Congress.

Brown pushed lawmakers to embrace his "global New Deal" plan for overhauling the rules of international finance and share the wealth of a world economy he promised would double over the next 20 years.

President Barack Obama's historic election has given "the whole world renewed hope in itself," he said, adding that "now more than ever the rest of the world wants to work with you" including "your friend Europe."

Brown challenged lawmakers to back his campaign of universal global childhood education and urged them to resist the temptation to erect new trade barriers that could deepen the worst crisis since the depression of the 1930s.

"Should we succumb to a race to the bottom and to a protectionism that history tells us that in the end protects no one? No," said Brown, just the fifth British prime minister to speak to the combined chambers.

Lauding the United States as "the indispensable nation," Brown said US leadership in fighting climate change was critical to forging "a historic agreement" at December UN talks in Denmark's capital Copenhagen.

"I believe you, the nation that had the vision to put a man on the moon, are also the nation with a vision to protect and preserve our planet Earth," he said, drawing boisterous applause from Obama's Democrats and a more subdued response from Republicans.

Brown also leveled a fresh warning to Iran, which the West suspects is masking a nuclear weapons drive beneath a civilian atomic energy program despite pressure of tough US- and British-backed sanctions.

"Our shared message to Iran, it is simple: We are ready for you to rejoin the international community, but first you must cease your threats and suspend your nuclear programs," he said.

Brown, who spoke for about 40 minutes, also appealed for US aid in ensuring that children around the world get at least a primary education, calling it "the greatest gift we could give."

The prime minister's speech received a generally warm response from the packed House chamber, where about half the audience was made up of aides, with many lawmakers including some marquee names absent.

Republican Senator John McCain missed the speech, as did Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy, missing Brown's announcement that Queen Elizabeth had awarded him an honorary knighthood for his work in promoting peace in Northern Ireland.

The ailing Kennedy, who was diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor last year, said in a statement he was "deeply grateful" and declared: "For me this honor is moving and personal."

Kennedy's son Patrick Kennedy, a Democratic representative from Rhode Island, went up to Brown after the speech to shake his hand and a chorus of cheers went up when the two men embraced on the dais.

Nearly six years after the Iraq war tore at US transatlantic alliances, Brown told lawmakers that Washington could now count on "the most pro-American European leadership in living memory."

The prime minister won about 17 standing ovations during his speech, and many US lawmakers pressed him successfully afterwards to autograph his prepared remarks.

But Brown received only half-hearted applause when he said he hoped to get agreement on overhauling the world of international finance at April talks of the Group of 20 major economies in London.

He said he hoped the summit would yield "rules and standards for proper accountability, transparency, and reward that will mean an end to the excesses and will apply to every bank everywhere all the time."

Obama called Brown Wednesday afternoon and "congratulated the prime minister on his speech to Congress and expressed his appreciation for a very productive visit," the White House said.

Group Says European Cap-and-Trade System Reduced Emissions

The officials who created and run the cap-and-trade system for the European Union could use some good news.
The price of a ton of carbon dioxide in the current phase of the trading system has fallen to record lows recently. And although there are few suggestions the price could collapse entirely, the recent drop still is a worrying reminder that a market-based system to reduce emissions can be subject to significant volatility.

In a boost for the system on Monday, however, a prominent research company, New Carbon Finance, said its calculations showed that the largest cause of a reduction in emissions in the European Union last year was attributable to the trading system — because it had encouraged greater use of gas in power generation rather than dirtier fuels like coal.

European emissions dropped by roughly 3 percent in 2008.

“Despite the large sell-off of industrial permits over the last few months that has caused the price of allowances to fall below fundamental levels,” New Carbon Finance said, “the existence of a carbon price in 2009 indicates that banking of allowances is taking place and the design of the scheme is working as originally intended by the European Union.”

The group said it still was awaiting official figures from European authorities that are expected two months from now, but it estimated that the carbon price was responsible for 40 percent of the fall in emissions last year, with the recession accounting for a further 30 percent.

Nonetheless, New Carbon Finance warned that, once the data for 2008 is fully compiled, it will reveal a surplus of credits.

A very large surplus of credits also existed in 2006 — when the carbon price collapsed.

Energy secretary predicts higher demand for oil

WASHINGTON – Energy Secretary Steven Chu, a champion of renewable energy and biofuels, has no delusions about the future of oil. Global demand for it will increase over the next two decades even with more efficiency and alternative fuels, he says, and prices will again go higher.

Chu, during an hourlong meeting with reporters Thursday, discussed the futility of predicting oil prices in the short run, the need for a national electricity transmission system, and the urgency of getting the billions of economic stimulus dollars to the nation.

For the second day in a row he indicated that the activities of the OPEC oil cartel are not one of his — or his department's — priorities.

When asked if the Obama administration would oppose expected production cuts by OPEC at a meeting next month, Chu said he was for oil price stability but couldn't say what the administration position was. He said he would look into it "to figure out what the U.S. position should be and what the president's position is."

"I'm not the administration, quite frankly," he said.

Asked if he thought oil prices, which have plummeted, might rebound again, Chu joked: "If anyone thinks they can predict oil prices, they will be very wealthy."

But in the long run, over the next two decades, he said, he's certain the price of crude will be significantly higher than today. Crude oil has dropped from a high last summer of $145 a barrel to a recent low of about $34.

"After we get out of the deep recession the world is in now I see higher demand" for oil, said Chu, although he hoped the push to alternative fuels and greater efficiency "can help the U.S. greatly decrease that demand."

He predicted oil will become more expensive to produce because of the decline in conventional sources and, he said, "that drives the price up."

A Nobel Prize-winning physicist, Chu clearly seemed more comfortable discussing the role his department plays in promoting science, the expected growth of wind and solar energy, and energy efficiency, than responding to questions about global oil politics and OPEC.

He said he viewed the Energy Department's primary role as one of influencing domestic energy issues and as a catalyst for energy-related science — and dealing with economic recovery.

Chu said he had directed "a sweeping reorganization" of the department's disbursal of direct loans, loan guarantees and other funding for energy development to more rapidly push out the tens of billions of dollars made available to the department under the stimulus package.

The department will process $32.7 billion in energy-related grants and has the authority to provide government backing for $130 billion in private loans, said Chu, appearing at Platt's Energy Podium, an event sponsored by the McGraw-Hill Cos. energy information company.

Chu promised — as he did in a speech to state utility regulators on Wednesday — to get the first loan approvals out by late April or early May.

On another matter, Chu said that there has been a "sea-change" in the way the country must look at electricity transmission.

Chu decline to say whether Congress should give the federal government more power to direct where transmission lines ought to be built, but he said electric transmission and distribution has become "a national issue."

"We desperately need a national transmission overlay" to be able to tap a wide range of power-generating sources including wind and solar energy, said Chu, although acknowledging there has to be "a balance" of local, state and national interests.

Orbiting NASA observatory to map, monitor CO2

WASHINGTON (AFP) – NASA readied the launch early Tuesday of a satellite that will produce the first complete map of the Earth's human and natural sources of carbon dioxide, CO2, the gas most closely linked to climate change.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory, or OCO, was scheduled to be launched at 0951 GMT (1:51 am) from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California on board the Taurus XL rocket built by Orbital Science Corp., NASA said in a statement posted Monday on its website.

It would be the first time NASA has used a Taurus rocket.

NASA said the observatory would map the geographic distribution of CO2 sources and study their changes over time.

The measurements will be integrated with those from ground observation stations and other satellites to get a fuller picture of the processes that regulate CO2 and its role in Earth's climate and carbon cycles, according to the space agency.

The data gathered by the OCO satellite will help scientists project increases in CO2 with greater precision, thereby enabling them to more accurately forecast changes in climate.

Policymakers and the private sector could use the data to make better decisions aimed at improving the quality of life on Earth, NASA said.

"It's critical that we understand the processes controlling carbon dioxide in our atmosphere today so we can predict how fast it will build up in the future and how quickly we'll have to adapt to climate change caused by carbon dioxide buildup," said David Crisp, the OCO's principal investigator at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.